Scenarios Identify and evaluate possible scenarios and formulate possible courses of action.
Scenario 1:
LRA (Lord’s Resistance Army) leader Joseph Kony is taken to jail and as a result the use of child soldiers is nearly eliminated.
There is evidence to claim that such a scenario is possible, for example, In recent times organizations such as Unicef, the UN and the Red Cross have been working hard to stop the use of child soldiers and have stated that the use of child soldiers has gone down in recent years. Also, in recent times, campaigns have been implemented to stop Joseph Kony. Just recently, the organization Invisible Children have released a video explaining who Joseph Kony is and what he has done. It also explains how to bring an end to his reign
From this Scenario also develops quite a few possible outcomes, for example, there is the possibility that commanders, furious with the depleting number of child soldiers, begin trying to find other methods, such as the use of animals. There is also the more positive outcome and that is that child soldiers become a forgotten method of use and as result become fully eliminated.
Course of Action 1:
To make sure such a situation does happen action must be taken immediately. We must make sure everyone we know see’s the video Invisible Children released about Joseph Kony. Countries such as the USA and the UK will only take action against the use of child soldiers if we, the world, start speaking out.
Scenario 2:
The number of children in the world depletes rapidly due to the deaths of many child soldiers.
There is evidence that confirms the possibility of such a situation, for example, its reported that over 100,000 child soldiers die every year. That's a tremendous figure considering that there are only around 350,000 child soldiers in the world.
From this situation evolves a few possible outcomes, for example, children are known as the ‘future’. This means if the child population does decrease drastically, in 20 years there will be no workforce. This could cause serious problems in the economy and from there even more serious problems could develop.
Course of Action 2:
To stop such a situation from happening, action against the use of child soldiers must be taken under immediate effect. Groups such as Unicef and the Red Cross must step up their interest in this topic now.
Scenario 3:
Child Soldiers become legal in certain countries.
There is evidence to suggest that such a situation could become a reality. For example, It’s always said that what you can’t get you want more. That’s why many people believe that if child soldiers are legalized they’ll be used less. For instance, in Portugal, when marijuana was legalized, its usage decreased greatly.
From this situation develops quite a few possible outcomes, both negative and positive. For example, there is the possibility that use of child soldier does decrease, however, there is of course the other possibility that the use of children will increase rapidly since it’s legal.
Course of Action 3:
To stop such a situation from happening due to the possible negative consequences, people and the governments of many counties must start speaking out. They must start explaining that whilst there is the possibility that the use of child soldiers could go down as a result of this, there is a larger chance that the use of child soldiers would just become more frequent.